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The chief executive of Heartland Advisors, Will Nasgovitz oversees about $1.3 billion in assets. He is not calling for a full-blown financial crisis yet; but with trillions of dollars in corporate debt in arrears in the upcoming years, the industry hotshot’s not exactly predicting a smooth ride in the stock market, either.
Nasgovitz explained in a recent post that with low-interest rates, the strong economy, and relatively easy lending standards the thinking went through that borrowing dollars to buy back the shares or finance acquisitions was calculated to be a low-risk strategy. But it turns out that in the next five years this optimistic view is going to go through a severe test.
Will then further in his post used an Economy predicting chart to hold his stance. In the chart, it is completely described as to how about $3.3 trillion that is 48 percent of all the current outstanding commercial debt is coming due by the year 2023. In the upcoming years, the timing could be really problematic.
Nasgovitz wrote that the sheer volume is going to be extremely challenging for the market to digest even in the best scenarios, let alone this late in an economic expansion. He also added to the sense of caution that these are the early signs -lending standards have already begun to tighten the conditions of commercial and industrial borrowers.
The Chief Executive said that borrowers are going to end up paying higher rates in order to just secure the funds from retiring any outstanding obligations, as soon as the bank starts to become stringent.
To the recent post explaining about the soon coming economic crisis Nasgovitz added –while the people are currently unable to see the signs of a completely blown financial crisis on the rising horizon they must incline towards believing that this excessive debt taken is going to add irrelevant and unnecessary challenges to the companies in general; while this is going to be a headwind for all the heavy borrowers in the intermediate term that is about to go forward.
Although there is not much fear in the Wednesday market with S&P 500 SPX, -0.35%, Nasdaq COMP, -0.39%, and DJIA, -0.40%, all closing sparingly high; premarket indications on Thursday, however, all telling a completely different story. The pointers are totally towards negative that is the economy seems to be declining.
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